Wednesday, May 31, 2006

Tip of the iceberg

To what Pete Cashmore says I have little to add....

"Clearly, SL is becoming a web service. This will inevitably blur the lines between the virtual world and the web, creating endless possibilities - events mashups, online calendar integration, even commercial mashups with Lindens as a payment option. This is the tip of a very big iceberg."

Furthermore, Harvard Business Review published an interesting article titled 'Avatar-Based Marketing' in which they investigate, a.o., the opportunities Second Life offers to marketeers.

Tuesday, May 30, 2006

Knowledge from networks

Illumio is an intriguing concept that allows you to easily tap into knowledge available in a specific social network or community. And even to make money from that knowledge if you're an expert yourself. But I do not see this as a stand-alone service, rather as something that should be added (where's the API?) to existing social networking services like MySpace, LinkedIn, etc. Each network has its own angle, Illumio is a great way of getting more value out of it.

"According to John Markoff, in the New York Times, Illumio - which runs under Windows - will make it simple to "pick the brains of friends and colleagues for opinions and expertise". The software links with Microsoft or Google desktop search engines indexes of users' hard drives. According to Markoff, it transparently distributes requests for information to the computers in a network of users. "The questions can then be answered locally based on a novel reverse auction system that Illumio uses to determine who the experts are."

Wednesday, May 24, 2006

Weblogs institutionalized

The deal between Technorati and AP really shows how blogs can be complementary to more traditional ways of spreading the news. I guess Technorati is already frequently used by journalists, but this way it can only get better, especially for people consuming news they find interesting. And I really like the fact this works perfectly on a local news level as well.

"Technorati just announced a partnership with the AP that will look functionally a lot like its partnership with the Washington Post. News organizations that run the AP's news module (there are reportedly 440 nationwide) will display a box highlighting the 5 most bloggged about news items of the day and inbound links will be displayed on pages for unique articles. This is great news - only makes sense. Further proof that the traditional/new media dichotomy isn't the best way to understand what's going on. I think this has the potential to be very good for both the blogosphere and for the mainstream media."

Tuesday, May 23, 2006

Micropayments without transaction costs

Interesting thought....

"Second Life has its own currency, Lindens. On any given day people are using it to conduct transactions. They buy items in world (clothes, toys, etc.) and they buy items out of world. People can cash Lindens out of the game on the Lindex (you need an SL id to see this page, but the current going rate is 314L$ to the $1) or use it to buy new ones... ...I wonder if people will start using Lindens more out of world than in. It currently costs nothing to get an SL ID and you never even have to enter the world to begin collecting Lindens."

Monday, May 22, 2006

Conference alternatives

Good to see more alternatives are coming to physically attending a conference or seminar. Waxxi has a nice and interesting 'interactive podcasting' service, but I prefer events within Second Life since it still allows you to have converstations with (groups of) other attendees in a manner that very much resembles a real life experience.

"I'm over visiting Shel for a podcast on Waxxi. There are almost 1,000 people signed up, which is just freaky. It's like giving a speech at a conference only from Shel's kitchen table. (UPDATE: Jeremiah Owang blogged the podcast, which was interesting because it ran like talk radio — people could come in and ask their questions over phone and there was a chat room too, I really liked the format; Mish in Toronto also blogged it; so did Peter Dawson, damn these posts all went up fast)."

Friday, May 19, 2006

Can't sell it? Fix it, don't advertise.

Interesting email conversation between Esther Dyson and Vint Cerf about what the 'future of the internet' will bring us. There are too many interesting quotes and thoughts, I'd just like to highlight a few pragmatic observations/predictions by Esther.

"So the message to marketers is: If you can't sell your product (assuming it's already in the market), fix the product! Don't try to change the situation by advertising. Consumers will publish wish lists for marketers to scan. Also, their choices will be influenced by their friends' comments much more than by marketers' messages. On the other hand, it will be much harder for consumers to get free content anonymously, because advertisers will want to know more about the people they are paying to reach. In many cases, whether email or ads, users may even get a share of the marketer's payments. (See AttentionTrust.org or my op-ed on Goodmail or my post on Release 1.0)"

Wednesday, May 17, 2006

Amazon's services store

Interesting interview with Werner Vogel, Amazon's CTO. If you would like to understand what it takes to build and run a platform business that is enabled by technology, go read it. Amazon is not (just) a retailer and that's part of the reason why the company will be able to create so much more value than a (perceived) competitor like say Bol.com. This article is a good reminder for anyone having (or starting) a technology based business. Will you be a service and/or will you be a feature?

"Many think of Amazon as "that hugely successful online bookstore." You would expect Amazon CTO Werner Vogels to embrace this distinction, but in fact it causes him some concern. "I think it's important to realize that first and foremost Amazon is a technology company," says Vogels. And he's right. Over the past years, Vogels has helped Amazon grow from an online retailer (albeit one of the largest, with more than 55 million active customer accounts) into a platform on which more than 1 million active retail partners worldwide do business. Behind Amazon's successful evolution from retailer to technology platform is its SOA (service-oriented architecture), which broke new technological ground and proved that SOAs can deliver on their promises."

Inevitable pipe future

Telecommunications operators will see a future, despite all their efforts to prevent this from happening, where they will be nothing more (or less) than a bit pipe provider. May be combined with some very relevant services that are related to providing access to the internet and which will create additional value to both consumer and operator.

"More specifically, QoS from the ITU and ETSI cartels is a reaction to the immediate VoIP (Skype, Vonage, etc.) threat to existing telephony business models. Because voice is today’s killer application it has become the first battleground for operator monopoly business model protection. Expected data revenues are not materializing to off-set declining voice revenues. Note that 3G might be “almost” here, but it has failed miserably in achieving its data business objectives. 3G-only operators continue to struggle to find a workable business model and continue to compete on the declining price of voice. The sooner the telecommunications operators realize the need to start driving towards their final bit pipe future, the sooner they can halt their wasteful spending during their inevitable decline and ensure their survival (just look at the pathetic history of AT&T)."

Saturday, May 13, 2006

Dolly is famous;-)

Tuesday, May 09, 2006

Surviving the Xbox(?)

Daniel Zsukov sent me an article, "Why We Haven't Met Any Aliens", in response to my post on Open Croquet. The writer, Geoffrey Millers, suggests that intelligent life will exterminate itself because of "the Great Temptation for any technological species—to shape their subjective reality to provide the cues of survival and reproductive success without the substance. Most bright alien species probably go extinct gradually, allocating more time and resources to their pleasures, and less to their children. They eventually die out when the game behind all games—the Game of Life—says "Game Over; you are out of lives and you forgot to reproduce."

And that's also the reason why we won't find any aliens. Not because they've blown themselves up like some scholars suggest will happen to every intelligent life, but because "they just get addicted to computer games. They forget to send radio signals or colonize space because they're too busy with runaway consumerism and virtual-reality narcissism. They don't need Sentinels to enslave them in a Matrix; they do it to themselves, just as we are doing today. Once they turn inwards to chase their shiny pennies of pleasure, they lose the cosmic plot. They become like a self-stimulating rat, pressing a bar to deliver electricity to its brain's ventral tegmental area, which stimulates its nucleus accumbens to release dopamine, which feels…ever so good."

His central point is that "the business of humanity has become entertainment, and entertainment is the business of feeding fake fitness cues to our brains." I don't agree. Not now and not in the long run, since I believe (or hope..) that entertainment will evolve as well, incorporating "the traditional staples of physical, mental and social development—athletics, homework, dating—" of which Miller says they are being neglected. He says that "the few young people with the self-control to pursue the meritocratic path often get distracted at the last minute. Take, for example, the MIT graduates who apply to do computer game design for Electronics Arts, rather than rocket science for NASA." He might be right, but if entertainment will evolve towards integrating physical and virtual aspects, then he's wrong exactly because they will go work for EA rather than NASA.

So this is all a sign of transformation, not an endpoint: "We have already shifted from a reality economy to a virtual economy, from physics to psychology as the value-driver and resource-allocator. We are already disappearing up our own brainstems. Our neurons over-stimulate each other, promiscuously, as our sperm and eggs decay, unused. Freud's pleasure principle triumphs over the reality principle. Today we narrow-cast human-interest stories to each other, rather than broadcasting messages of universal peace and progress to other star systems."

His final question is whether we will survive the Xbox. Yes, we will, and Nintendo's Wii and Sony PlayStation's EyeToy are just glimpses of the reason why. So let's all start building the Metaverse on top of the MySpace community and let the game not be played in front of a living room TV, but use augmented reality to get the kids outside and physically interact.

Monday, May 08, 2006

Amsterdam geek dinner

Last Friday I've had dinner with a couple of very interesting people. Marc Canter, Ton Zylstra, Christel Slijkerman, Don Hopkins and Riccardo Cambiassi. I've been following Marc's work for a while now (and Don's as well without realizing it) and it was good to finally meet him. We spoke at the same conference earlier that week. Really looking forward to testing the PeopleAggregator!

It was only six of us on Friday, I guess that had someting to do with the fact it was the first beautiful day of the year in Amsterdam...;-)

Sunday, May 07, 2006

Open Croquet

October last year I first wrote about Croquet, a Second Life like P2P virtual world that is a 3D operating system at the same time. Robert Scoble witnessed a demo and reports on his weblog. The Croquet SDK 1.0 became available as a beta at the beginning of April, I can't wait to experience the first user friendly implementations. If Eccky was not keeping me so busy.... If you're interested in these developments, be sure to have a look at the reports from the Metaverse Roadmap Summit that took place over the last couple of days.

"See that chess set in the image above? You can move around it. You can spin it. You can zoom toward it. And, if you touch it you are playing chess. All running P2P. No centralized servers needed. It's remarkable. They showed how you could just "step into" a new virtual world. Just move toward something that looks like a window and you "dive into" that Window and are instantly in a new world. In that new world there would be new people, new things to see."

Wednesday, May 03, 2006

Reputation aggregators

Is there a need for a system that allows me to check out someone's reputation? Definitely. Do we need (and trust) a system that's centralized and 'owned' by one company? I'm not so sure. Rapleaf is such a central solution (as is eBay with their feedback system), but it's 'open' at the same time. So it allows other services to use the information that is stored in Rapleaf's databases and to combine it with their own information on that individual. I would expect to see some (meta) reputation aggregators very soon...

"Rapleaf will (on launch) deploy an API to allow third parties to access the key parts of the service. Account creation, review creation and feedback scores will all be accessible, and free, to third parties who choose to integrate. For non-eBay shopping sites, Rapleaf will be a competitive leveler. And if enough sites start to integrate with Rapleaf over time, the data will become even more relevant than eBay’s."

Tuesday, May 02, 2006

Startup lessons

Paul Graham has published an essay in which he explains the (very recognizable) lessons that are hardest to learn for startups. To me the most important one is number 4, "Fear the Right Things".

"Almost everyone's initial plan is broken. If companies stuck to their initial plans, Microsoft would be selling programming languages, and Apple would be selling printed circuit boards. In both cases their customers told them what their business should be-- and they were smart enough to listen."