Google in China

A lot has been said already about Google launching a filtered version of their search engine in China. I guess there's just no easy answer to the question of whether this is 'good' or 'bad'. Dave Taylor makes an interesting comparison:

"This has played out again and again over the years. Remember shareholders boycotting companies that did business in South Africa? But didn't it turn out that those very companies and their enlightened human rights policies really helped eliminate apartheid?"

So, with hindsight, do we feel it has been 'good' or 'bad' that those companies did business in South Africa, although it was not their mission to eliminate apartheid...?

Really online

I've stated before that I do not think we should make a distinction between real and virtual, or online and offline lives. It's all the same, even more so for a younger generation.

"I find very compelling the idea that we [are] beginning to see a generation that has not grown up with the idea of the internet as a separate "cyberspace", but instead experiences it as an aspect of the environment in which they live; another channel alongside "real space", only with different characteristics." The internet has invaded our social space to a point that we can no longer tell the difference between those relationships it infects and those it does not. The six degrees that used to separate us, for instance, has dropped to 4.6 thanks to digital technology. We no longer use terms like "pen pal" or "acquaintance," instead just calling everyone a "friend" whether we talk to them daily in person or monthly over instant messenger."

The year of I

Joel sums up the key questions that need to be anwered before we can really take advantage of the net.

"So what can we look forward to? Well, we'll have to face a number of important challenges to ramp up, the most fundamental of which is of course Identity, and I'm concerned that immediately following is that of an even more loosely defined term that everyone has differing opinions on: Trust. These aren't new thoughts, smart people have been trying this message for years and it's still true, and it's still in need of help. How do you trust someone you only interact with digitally? What do you need to learn about them to understand who they are and form a relationship? When does the group decide versus an individual? Are there realizeable technology solutions here (standards and protocols)? Which social and behavioral patterns need to grow and adapt?"

Economic rationale for open source model

John Mark Walker has written a good article in which he tries to explain the economic reasons for the existence of the open source model. As opposed to a more 'idealistic' view. Also read Nicholas Carr's response and that of Matt Assay.

"I have shown how the internet has driven software prices into the dirt, created an environment conducive to open source collaboration, and provided the infrastructure for that collaboration to actually take place. I have also shown how cheap commodity software markets are necessary for open source development and how open source is not viable in less mature software markets without the necessary economy of scale. When viewing open source development from this perspective, some things become clear that perhaps were not before."

Google: the bear case

Some time ago I advised you to sell (or not buy) Google shares. I've had many discussions recently on this topic with both experts and non-experts. Henry Blodget describes the 'Bear Case' and I have to agree with him. The questions is not if, but when?

"The first thing that could happen is that, for a variety of reasons, AdWords revenue growth could slow. The reasons could include market saturation (one of these days, Google will have picked all the low-hanging search fruit) and/or a flattening of keyword price increases (recent anecdotal evidence such as FTD suggests that this is already happening in some categories). Both market saturation and price pressure will occur naturally someday, as they do with every business. The only question is when. If/when this slowdown occurs, what will happen? The stock's multiple will compress. How much? At $460, Google is valued at about $140 billion, or approximately 50X-70X a 2006 free cash flow estimate of $2-$3 billion. If grows slows gradually, this multiple will probably shrink to 30X-40X. If it slows precipitously, the multiple will probably shrink to 20X-30X. Natural forces, in other words, should eventually compress Google's FCF multiple by 20%-60%. (I am comfortable predicting that this will happen. Again, the only question is when.)"

MySpace is a real place

Lot's of interesting quotes in this USA TODAY article on MySpace. You should read it if you'd like to get a feel for how teens are living their lives online.

"For those who didn't grow up with the Internet, it might seem strange to think of a mere website as an actual place. But for people like Edstrom and Michael Edwards, a high school senior from San Diego who can't remember when there was no Internet, cyberspace is a real place, even if the entry gates come in the form of a PC."

The Madness of Crowds

Nice example of a typical Web 2.0 'bug'.

"This is a classic Web 2.0 problem: it's hard to aggregate the wisdom of the crowd without aggregating their madness as well. In this case, the situation was amplified because it wasn't just any site that Steve was accused of ripping off, it was the very site that the community belonged to and identified with."

First day with my Segway

Last week I received a Segway from Igo Rentals. One day of touring through Amsterdam was interesting. Within 30 minutes at least 15 pictures were taken, some grandpa told his granddaughter I was just a lazy guy, "he, it's a rollator for 30-somethings" was funny to hear, and cars slow down when they see you.

Anyway, I'll report some more findings later when I've had the chance to use it a bit more. But I'm glad that, after reading about IT & Ginger for the first time exactly 5 years ago, I finally had the chance to experience what Dean Kamen meant when he said that the Segway "will be to the car what the car was to the horse and buggy."