Downfall of paid-listing websites

Very interesting analysis from Bill Burnham on the impact Google Base, and future similar services, will have on vertical businesses like monster.com, ebay.com, match.com, and basically any other paid-listing website. These services use a "Walled Garden" approach, a model that will soon be made obsolete because of the open character of the web, and the way it can be indexed, structured and searched. With Google Base as a potential king of vertical search.

"Google base is essentially the world’s largest XML database. If you take the time to read through the XML schema you will see that Google has essentially already built all of the components that it needs to enter the vertical search space in a big way; all it needs to do now is refine a few algorithms and flip a switch. If and when it does so, it will undoubtedly not only the have the largest collection of listings in all major categories overnight but will also have arguably the best distribution channel for those listings on the Internet. This is not good news if you are currently charging to either to display or to access similar listings (or if you are a vertical search start-up)."

1 billion internet users

These statistics and Jakob Nielsen's analysis say it all.

"According to Morgan Stanley estimates, 36% of Internet users are now in Asia and 24% are in Europe. Only 23% of users are in North America, where it all started in 1969 when two computers -- one in Los Angeles, the other in Palo Alto -- were networked together."

The probabilistic age

Chris Anderson has a post on a topic I find myself thinking about a lot lately. He calls it the probabilistic age.

"When professionals--editors, academics, journalists--are running the show, we at least know that it's someone's job to look out for such things as accuracy. But now we're depending more and more on systems where nobody's in charge; the intelligence is simply emergent. These probabilistic systems aren't perfect, but they are statistically optimized to excel over time and large numbers. They're designed to scale, and to improve with size. And a little slop at the microscale is the price of such efficiency at the macroscale."

In the comments Chris makes a very important remark on Wikipedia, saying it is a mix of authority and statistics that make it work. I think that mix is something we will see happening everywhere in order to make sure that certain problems are fixed...

"In the popular entries with many eyes watching, Wikipedia becomes closer to the statistical average of the views of the participants, weighted by such factors the authority of each as defined by the others (frequent contributors to any entry tend to win any vote-offs). Studies have shown that for such entries, the mean time to repair vandalism of the sort you describe is measured in minutes. As Wikipeida grows that rapid self-repairing property will spread to more entries."

Guilt-free easy money

Tim Harford raises a lot of good questions on the Xbox 360 shortage.

"Microsoft has got it wrong, too, but they have missed out on a far more obvious opportunity. Why didn't they sell their initial supply of Xbox consoles, packaged as a "limited edition," using online auctions? All the while they would promise $300 consoles as soon as stocks were available. Since at an auction the price is set by the buyers, not the seller, Microsoft could have made a killing, absolutely guilt-free, and created no more annoyed, empty-handed customers than they have with their current strategy."

Sell Google shares

Besides the question of whether Google's strategy and assets have more potential than for instance Yahoo!'s (I don't think so), there are some other reasons why Google is being overvalued on the stock exchange. Nicholas Carr sums it up after an interesting remark made by Bill Gates. My conclusion would be: sell Google shares.

"The online ad market is going to become more efficient. Much of the profit that now goes to the operators of the ad-serving technology will be redistributed. Some will go to the advertisers, in the form of lower rates, and some will go to the publishers, in the form of higher commissions. And if Gates is serious - and I'm betting he is - some will go to the internet users themselves, whose clicks, after all, make the whole system work. In the battle for eyeballs, bribery can be a powerful weapon."

The more fundamental reason for the fact that the current situation is not sustainable is that it won't take long before we understand that our individual 'attention' has worth and that we are increasingly able to exploit it.

Everyone is talking to everyone

Often when people speak about blogs, they miss the point when claiming it's nothing new. "I had a personal homepage 10 years ago" is what they say. But what makes blogging different is syndication. Syndication has turned the static web into a live web. Read these two (1, 2) articles in Linux Journal by Doc Searls in order to better understand this.

"Blogging predated syndication, but it was syndication that began to give form to the live Web. Syndication provided a way for people, and the tools they use, to pay attention (through subscription) to feeds from syndicated sources. At first these sources were blogs and publications, but later they came to include searches for topics of conversation, including the names of authors, URLs and permalinks for particular blog posts or news stories. Many of those sources were not the blogs themselves, but search engines reporting the results of keyword and URL searches."

Social search

Interesting new social search service from Yahoo! that allows people to ask and answers questions in a community environment. Contextual advertising could prove to be an interesting revenue model for both Yahoo! and answering users.... And who knows, it might even solve other problems as well.

"Yahoo today rolled out a very Web 2,0-ey and potentially powerful new beta product, Yahoo Answers, that helps you connect with other users who can answer your questions. You can ask a question; answer a question; or browse already-answered questions. There are rating, participation points and ratting systems to help keep the community helpful and useful. If it works, it will provide a powerful catalog of useful user-generated content in such advertiser-attractive areas as consumer electronics, stay-at-home moms, health, etc. Time, as they say in Cliche Corner, will tell if Yahoo can control the scammers, spammers and marketers from taking over the joint."

Marc Canter

We just had another Marc Canter show at Les Blogs 2.0. I'm not going to repeat or analyze what he said, because I've blogged about it before when he wrote an article, "Breaking the web wide open", a short while ago. It is a must read for anyone interested in Web 2.0, Les Blogs 2.0, Identity 2.0 etc, etc. I just noticed I'll be speaking at a conference with him next year, let's see if I can keep him awake;-)

"Today's incumbents will have to adapt to the new openness of the Web 2.0. If they stick to their proprietary standards, code, and content, they'll become the new walled gardens—places users visit briefly to retrieve data and content from enclosed data silos, but not where users "live." The incumbents' revenue models will have to change. Instead of "owning" their users, users will know they own themselves, and will expect a return on their valuable identity and attention. Instead of being locked into incompatible media formats, users will expect easy access to digital content across many platforms."

Relevance of the wrong

Mena Trott jus gave an opening speech at the second day of the Les Blogs conference in Paris that ignited a heated discussion. She mentioned a case where famous blogger (and Yahoo! employee) Jeremy Zawodny wrote a post on a PR firm, Krause Taylor Associates. He accusses them of spamming him, but deep down in the comments he sort of admits being wrong about that. The problem for Krause Taylor Associates is not over however. If you Google them, hit number 2 is about the 'spam-incident'. The result is they're tainted because Google says this is the second most relevant piece of information publicly available on the web about Krause Taylor Associates. Most people Googling the firm will not read all the way down to Jeremy's 'apology' however.

Most present at Les Blogs agree this is a problem. But how do we solve this? Try to influence blogger behavior? Not likely to work well, but most speakers seem to be looking for a 'cultural' solution. But wouldn't it be great if there was a solution (facilitated by technology) that allows us, as a collective, to decrease the relevance of something that is wrong, assuming the wrong is undisputed by the ones who should/could know? Some sort of reputation management system may be? Should/could search engines present search results differently?

Innovation according to Etsy

Sometimes you just need to forget about how and why things work the way they've always worked. Innovation might be the result, and Etsy is a nice example. A quote from the article (Yuri, do you have a link to the full article?):

"What is interesting about Etsy is the way Robert Kalin and his three co-founders have introduced some new ideas to the way shoppers can look for things. Don't know what you're looking for exactly, but know what color you're after? Move your mouse over a "Shop by Color" grid and see dozens of bubbles of color float under the cursor. Click on a color you like and small boxes will appear, each one a different product that matches your chosen color. Click on the box you like the look of and details of the product will pop up including price tag, the retailer in question, and a link where you can get more information. It isn't a revolution, but it's different -- and an improvement on bricks and mortar. Ever tried saying to a shop assistant "I don't know exactly what I'm looking for, but please line up all the products that are this shade of turquoise?" Expect a blank look at best, a surly brushoff, or a "We're closing now. Bye!"

The MySpace generation

Nice article in BusinessWeek on the success of social networks like MySpace. A nice startingpoint for marketeers that do not really understand what's happening....

"Although networks are still in their infancy, experts think they're already creating new forms of social behavior that blur the distinctions between online and real-world interactions. In fact, today's young generation largely ignores the difference. Most adults see the Web as a supplement to their daily lives. They tap into information, buy books or send flowers, exchange apartments, or link up with others who share passions for dogs, say, or opera. But for the most part, their social lives remain rooted in the traditional phone call and face-to-face interaction."